Geospatial Market Survey Analysis, Multi-Criteria Location Scoring, and Catchment Demand Modeling: Strategic Retail Pharmacy Site Selection in Narok County, Kenya

This project executes a quantitative market survey analysis and multi-criteria spatial feasibility study to identify and evaluate optimal micro-locations for establishing a retail community pharmacy in Narok County, Kenya. Addressing spatial inequalities in healthcare access—where a significant proportion of the population travels over 5 kilometers to access primary medical facilities—the analysis synthesized primary market survey data, local demographic distribution, transit foot traffic, competitor density, and public health morbidity profiles across key commercial nodes (including Narok Town CBD, Kilgoris, Ololulung'a, and major transit corridors). The methodology combined empirical field survey data with a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework utilizing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to weight location determinants. Core evaluation parameters included commercial accessibility, daily foot/vehicular traffic volume, proximity to anchor health infrastructure (such as Narok County Referral Hospital and private clinics facing frequent stockout pressures), local purchasing power, and regulatory spacing constraints enforced by the Pharmacy and Poisons Board (PPB). Using Huff’s Gravity Model, market catchment trade areas were delineated to estimate probability of consumer patronage and forecast drug demand across prescription medications, over-the-counter (OTC) treatments, and maternal-child health products.Furthermore, bivariate correlation and logistic regression models were applied to survey responses to assess consumer willingness-to-pay, preferred payment channels (M-Pesa vs. cash vs. insurance/NHIF cover), and unmet pharmaceutical demand drivers—specifically treatment gaps in respiratory infections, gastrointestinal illnesses, vector-borne conditions, and non-communicable lifestyle diseases. The resulting composite suitability index ranked candidate micro-locations, identifying high-density transport nodes and strategic clinic adjacent locations in Narok Town as top-tier deployment sites offering maximized financial return on investment (ROI), rapid payback periods, and enhanced community healthcare coverage.