Socio-Ecological Systems Analysis, Non-Parametric Econometrics, and Predictive Regression Modeling: Evaluating Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS) for Climate Resilience and Food Security in Dowa District, Malawi

This project delivered an end-to-end SPSS quantitative data analysis, empirical interpretation, and policy synthesis for Chapters 4 and 5 of a Master’s thesis on climate adaptation and food security in Malawi. The empirical study evaluated survey data collected from $N = 382$ smallholder farming households in Traditional Authority Mponela, Dowa District, investigating how Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS)—specifically local seed selection, traditional food preservation, weather forecasting indicators, and native farming practices—enhance smallholder climate resilience and household food security.The analytical pipeline executed in IBM SPSS Statistics (v28) followed a rigorous 8-step methodology:Data Sanitization & Demographic Profiling: Analyzed structural attributes (age, gender, education, land tenure, extension contact) using frequency matrices and central tendency metrics.Psychometric Reliability Analysis: Validated internal scale consistency across all four IKS constructs using Cronbach’s alpha ($\alpha = 0.78$ to $0.897$), confirming high measurement reliability without requiring item reduction.Composite Index Construction: Computed standardized Likert scale composite indices to rank community usage and strategic support across IKS domains.Normality Testing: Applied the Shapiro-Wilk test, revealing significant non-Gaussian distribution across all indices ($p < 0.001$), which dictated the use of non-parametric inferential statistics.Bivariate Correlation Analysis: Calculated Spearman rank-order correlation coefficients ($\rho$) to quantify inter-system relationships, establishing strong statistical co-dependencies between traditional weather forecasting, seed diversification, and food storage ($\rho = 0.346$ to $0.520, p < 0.01$).Multiple Linear Regression Modeling: Verified diagnostic assumptions (linearity, homoscedasticity, Cook's distance outliers, and multicollinearity via VIF metrics bounded between 1.060 and 2.883). Estimated an OLS regression model predicting the adoption of indigenous agricultural practices ($R^2 = 0.723, F(6, 336) = 145.837, p < 0.001$), identifying food preservation ($\beta = 0.428$) and seed diversification ($\beta = 0.387$) as primary adoption drivers.Theoretical Framework Synthesis: Integrated empirical outputs into the Sustainable Livelihood Framework (SLF) and Social-Ecological Systems (SES) theory to explain local asset accumulation and adaptive capacity.Policy Strategy Formulation: Synthesized Chapter 5 findings into actionable policy recommendations for the Ministry of Agriculture, extension networks, and NGOs to formalize IKS integration within national climate adaptation policies.